An energy balance table is a data matrix recording all energy activities/flows of concern within a society. Its ability to trace energy flows can be utilized to conduct systematic energy analysis. It is also capable to be further utilized as an effective tool to quantitatively assess the impact of energy uncertainty, which has not been explored yet.

Shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China has enormous unmet clean energy demand while its shale resources in China have been estimated to be the largest in the world. Nonetheless, due to geological drawbacks, water scarcity, limited gas infrastructure and other constraints, shale gas development in China remains uncertain. In this dissertation, shale gas development in China is examined under conservative, medium and optimistic scenarios.

Separate from the energy balance assessment, a China gas pipeline transmission optimization model is formulated. This assessment shows that several pipeline segments will be congested under the optimistic scenario of shale gas development. Consequently, nearly 3 bcm of shale gas could be “trapped” within the Chongqing Independent Administrative Municipal.

With the estimated gas transmitting potentials and shale gas production under the three scenarios, an energy balance assessment for shale gas development in China is conducted. The results indicate that, without optimistic shale gas development and pipeline expansion of the West-East pipeline and the Sichuan-East pipeline by 2020, more than half of national gas demand will have to be fulfilled by gas imports. By 2040, if the shale gas could not be produced on a commercial scale, the country will be either heavily reliant on gas imports, or fail to cap coal consumption before 2040. If China is to avoid this outcome, considerable effort will be required on both the shale gas production side and in improving transmission capability.